交行报告：2013年初或下调存准率1-2次

In the report: at the beginning of 2013 or cut deposit quasi rate 1-2 times

On January 22,, the traffic bank financial research center issued the 2013 China macro economic and financial outlook, report, in 2013 the overall monetary policy was discussed. The report pointed out that, considering the credit demand at the beginning of bigger, quarter open market not expire on capital and price increase is not clear at the beginning, is expected to deposit reserve ratio in the beginning of the year may cut 1-2 times, each time 0.5%, then remain stable.

In 2012, according to a report steady monetary policy, and according to the economic situation changes timely moderate to preset adjustment. In 2013, the monetary policy exist at the same time to relax and tightening pressure.

In December 2012, PMI index and previous month, private investment growth has not been seen picks up, economic growth is still need to be further consolidated, loose fine completely out of it is still early. But in order to avoid prices rise considerably, prevent investment overheating and prospective management inflation expectations, monetary policy also shoulds not be too loose.

According to the above analysis, bank of communications, thinks that in 2013 the steady monetary policy will be a real sense of "neutral", no further relax at the same time also will not be significantly tightened, and pay attention to the degree and enhance flexibility. The main consideration to credit demand at the beginning of bigger, quarter open market not expire on capital and price increase is not clear at the beginning, is expected to deposit reserve ratio in the beginning of the year may cut 1-2 times, each time 0.5%, then remain stable.

Bank of communications at the same time points out, in view of the loan interest rate has begun to descending, enterprise FaZhai interest rate is not high and the needs of the management of inflation expectations, the benchmark interest rate cut of necessity is much less. But raised interest rates sharply against the economy growth, Chinese and foreign interest margin will further aggravate capital inflows, and overall prices relatively controllable conditions necessity is not strong. Considering both the positive and negative factors, the 2013 annual interest rate policy is expected to maintain the basic stability of probability. But it would not rule out in the first half of the price increase is not high in one small cut interest rates may, or through the further expand the loan interest rate lower amplitude way to promote enterprise financing cost down.

In addition, the bank is expected to 2013 continue to agile development open market operation, through the reverse repurchase to put on the liquidity is still will be normal. At the same time, the expected deposit-loan ratio regulation is expected to be improved in order to promote stable bank lending.