交通银行：2013年全球经济增速回升至3%

Bank of communications: in 2013 the global economic growth back up to 3%

After 2012 years of global weak recovery after 2013, the global economic growth will rebound from 2.7% in 2012 to 3%, the main economy further differentiation, the whole Europe will still be at the bottom wandering, the United States sustained economic recovery, Japan will return a recession, "bricks" were restorative growth. This prediction is pay silver group on January 22, held in the afternoon of the 2013 series research report published by the conference.

"Developed countries and emerging market countries or will take very abhorrent of fiscal and monetary policy," bank of communications (601328. SH / 03328. HK) financial research center senior macro analysts TangJianWei told the meeting that "in developed economies, the fiscal deficit, subject to the constraints of trade imbalances, loose monetary policy will not be in the developed economies continues, and emerging market countries for short-term difficult now have improved a lot and input resistance inflation pressure dependence, or will take together" wide financial, the steady monetary "policy"

In this background, China's export environment will be improved, bank of communications, 2013 years is expected to China's export growth of 8.5%. Meanwhile, 2013 new government office will open up new investment plan in implementation, investment growth is expected to accelerate to 23%; Policy stimulus and reform of the income distribution system or the stable growth of consumption, and considering the capital market periodic market will make the stock market wealth effect on consumption have negative become a full member, real estate and cars two big markets continue to thaw, 2013 social total retail sales of consumer goods nominal growth will back up to 16%, the actual consumption growth may continue to back up to 12.5%.

Altogether, pull the growth of China's economy troika will stabilise picks up, China's economy will end two successive years of descending trend mild rebound. Bank of communications in 2013 is expected to China's economic growth around 8.5%, quarter economic growth are two head is a bit low, intermediate slightly high trend.

"2013 years of inflation not okay," pay silver schroeder fund management co., LTD. GaoWeiDong when the macro researcher optimistic estimate, "economic growth than expected, and inflation picks up speed will slow some. GDP and CPI fluctuations consistency still exist, inflation lag back pressure will continue." Moreover, GaoWeiDong judgment, China is still in the negative output gap state and monetary policy also didn't last drain.

"China's fiscal deficit in 2013 have somewhat expanded," TangJianWei expected, "deficit is expected to expand from 800 billion to 1.2 trillion, the deficit is expected to increase is mainly used to support structural tax cuts and the people's livelihood and other areas of infrastructure investment.

"In 2013, China will face liquidity comfortable environment," bank of communications financial marketing analyst XuYueGong at the meeting that, "on the one hand, in the first year of the government, from the historical and current policy trend to see, the investment will have a rapid growth; on the other hand, from the external factors to see, recently the United States, Japan, Europe, etc are introduced monetary easing.

In addition, the bank of communications financial research center, is expected to the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate in 2013 will still to two-way fluctuation is given priority to, fluctuation interval in 6.25 6.35, a modest rise at the end of may, is 6.27.

At present the RMB to continue to rise, in the economic recovery is still not stable background will be no drag export worries, branch of bank of communications in Hong Kong development strategy research group director LiuWeiYe disagreeing with this kind of point of view, he told the securities market weekly ", "the annual appreciation of 1%, 2% of the range isn't high, to export the impact is not big, but can export enterprise produce continuous pressure on them to improve the competitiveness of the export products"

As for Singapore, London an offshore RMB centre on 2012 years development faster than the Hong Kong question, LiuWeiYe said don't worry, even welcome these offshore the rapid development of the market. Darling the offshore market start low, the scale is not comparable with the Hong Kong; Both an offshore RMB market is still not mature, need to do with global mass; Three Hong Kong has its natural advantages, including geographic convenient, CEPA support, entrepot trade developed, financial talents such as plenty.