交通银行预计2013年1月CPI同比涨1.8%

Bank of communications is expected to January 2013 year-on-year CPI rose 1.8%

Bank of communications 29 research report released preliminary judgment in January 2013 year-on-year CPI rise may be in 1.8%, in two consecutive months after the rebound in temporary callback?

The report says, according to the ministry of commerce of the key monitoring of edible agricultural products price, the ministry of agriculture monitoring agricultural products wholesale price and the national bureau of statistics monitoring "fifty city major food average price changes" data are displayed, enter since January 2013, due to the cold weather still exist and the Spring Festival approaching, makes the vegetables and meat prices link to maintain the rise? This month is expected to price of food chain may continue to appear a large rise, the increase of about 2% in the initial judgment? At the same time, considering the recent non-food prices overall smooth operation, so this month is expected to non-food prices rise compared to the last month and may be flat (estimated rose 1.7% year-on-year in)?

Bank of communications financial research center TangJianWei senior macro analysts said, the 2012 Spring Festival is in January last year, leading to higher CPI base in January (the year-on-year CPI for 4.5%, is the highest years), base reasons may lead to this month year-on-year CPI, there might be a callback?

In the thought, although year-on-year CPI in January due to base for reasons appear callback, but from the price operation law perspective, this building bottom CPI basically completed, have begun to ferment the new period of rise, is expected to 2013 year-on-year CPI will go into ascending cycle initial? One is the domestic economy stabilises picks up, demand for the price of pull up effect enhancement; The second is 2013 pork prices will rise to channel, CPI "pig cycle" may emerge; The third is, Europe and the United States and other developed economies continue to an unlimited amount of loose monetary policy has led to the spread of the global liquidity, in the future international commodity prices risks remain, the domestic input sex inflationary pressure may be up again; Finally the domestic labor costs, resource prices reform brought about resources product prices and urbanization led to land costs and structural inflation will long existing?

However, in the thought, considering the overall stable monetary policy, and domestic economic growth only mild recovery, some industry overcapacity will check the price of a rising rapidly, 2013 prices overall moderate, preliminary judgment in 2013 year-on-year CPI will rise 3-3.5% in the first quarter of 2013, is expected to CPI in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with slightly tall, about 2.4%?